Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 0.038921 0.043810 0.049218 0.055669 0.063187 0.071710 0.082159
2026-02-08 0.031492 0.037644 0.044976 0.054444 0.066473 0.081416 0.101653
2026-02-15 0.026246 0.033024 0.041640 0.053579 0.069996 0.092227 0.125417
2026-02-22 0.022503 0.029662 0.039317 0.053616 0.074836 0.106151 0.157850
2026-03-01 0.019484 0.026787 0.037182 0.053568 0.079736 0.121786 0.198758
2026-03-08 0.016660 0.023757 0.034352 0.052010 0.082180 0.134718 0.241130
2026-03-15 0.013911 0.020440 0.030580 0.048294 0.080372 0.140349 0.273619
2026-03-22 0.012384 0.018785 0.029154 0.048222 0.085059 0.159759 0.344955
2026-03-29 0.011283 0.017655 0.028412 0.049240 0.092231 0.187195 0.452666
2026-04-05 0.010195 0.016394 0.027252 0.049277 0.097608 0.213404 0.577998
2026-04-12 0.009225 0.015206 0.026044 0.048998 0.102377 0.240804 0.732614
2026-04-19 0.008264 0.013912 0.024445 0.047605 0.104296 0.262239 0.891076
2026-04-26 0.007325 0.012564 0.022585 0.045376 0.103839 0.278015 1.052697
2026-05-03 0.006741 0.011809 0.021797 0.045424 0.109503 0.316667 1.377490
2026-05-10 0.006235 0.011146 0.021101 0.045564 0.115656 0.361830 1.826510
2026-05-17 0.005835 0.010645 0.020673 0.046295 0.124021 0.422296 2.524646
2026-05-24 0.005465 0.010158 0.020207 0.046844 0.132221 0.489998 3.504501
2026-05-31 0.005041 0.009511 0.019290 0.045997 0.135588 0.540177 4.542683
2026-06-07 0.004540 0.008650 0.017766 0.043160 0.130979 0.548334 5.178885
2026-06-14 0.004276 0.008273 0.017338 0.043400 0.138081 0.627752 7.264515
2026-06-21 0.004087 0.008039 0.017221 0.044552 0.149474 0.747671 11.140219
2026-06-28 0.003867 0.007714 0.016834 0.044799 0.157428 0.858206 16.348621
2026-07-05 0.003652 0.007378 0.016376 0.044727 0.164133 0.972058 23.898918